Beschreibung Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction (English Edition). The international bestseller'A manual for thinking clearly in an uncertain world. Read it.' Daniel Kahneman, author of Thinking, Fast and Slow_________________________What if we could improve our ability to predict the future?Everything we do involves forecasts about how the future will unfold. Whether buying a new house or changing job, designing a new product or getting married, our decisions are governed by implicit predictions of how things are likely to turn out. The problem is, we're not very good at it.In a landmark, twenty-year study, Wharton professor Philip Tetlock showed that the average expert was only slightly better at predicting the future than a layperson using random guesswork. Tetlock's latest project – an unprecedented, government-funded forecasting tournament involving over a million individual predictions – has since shown that there are, however, some people with real, demonstrable foresight. These are ordinary people, from former ballroom dancers to retired computer programmers, who have an extraordinary ability to predict the future with a degree of accuracy 60% greater than average. They are superforecasters.In Superforecasting, Tetlock and his co-author Dan Gardner offer a fascinating insight into what we can learn from this elite group. They show the methods used by these superforecasters which enable them to outperform even professional intelligence analysts with access to classified data. And they offer practical advice on how we can all use these methods for our own benefit – whether in business, in international affairs, or in everyday life._________________________'The techniques and habits of mind set out in this book are a gift to anyone who has to think about what the future might bring. In other words, to everyone.' Economist'A terrific piece of work that deserves to be widely read . . . Highly recommended.' Independent'The best thing I have read on predictions . . . Superforecasting is an indispensable guide to this indispensable activity.' The Times
Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction ~ Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction (Englisch) Gebundene Ausgabe â 29. September 2015
Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction ~ âSuperforecasting is the most important scientific study Iâve ever read on prediction.â â Cass R. Sunstein , The Bloomberg View "Just as modern medicine began when a farsighted few began to collect data and keep track of outcomes, to trust objective 'scoring' over their own intuitions, it's time now for similar demands to be made of the experts who lead public opinion.
Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction ~ Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction / Tetlock, Philip E., Gardner, Dan, Richards, Joel / ISBN: 9781511364041 / Kostenloser Versand fĂŒr alle BĂŒcher .
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Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction by ~ Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction by Philip E. Tetlock and Dan Gardner / Key Takeaways, Analysis & Review by Instaread (December 14, 2015) / / ISBN: / Kostenloser Versand fĂŒr alle BĂŒcher mit Versand und Verkauf duch .
Superforecasting The Art And Science Of Prediction English ~ Superforecasting The Art And Science Of Prediction English Edition By Philip Tetlock Dan Gardner A review of tetlock s superforecasting 2015 dominic. can we improve predictions q amp a with philip. superforecasting audiobook by philip tetlock dan.
Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction ~ Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction / Tetlock, Philip E., Gardner, Dan / ISBN: 9781101923962 / Kostenloser Versand fĂŒr alle BĂŒcher mit Versand und Verkauf duch .
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Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction ~ â[Superforecasting] highlights the techniques and attributes of superforecastersâthat is, those whose predictions have been demonstrated to be remarkably accurateâin a manner thatâs both rigorous and readable. The lessons are directly relevant to business, finance, government, and politics.â
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Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction ~ Buy Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction Unabridged by Tetlock, Philip E., Gardner, Dan, Richards, Joel (ISBN: 9781511364041) from 's Book Store. Everyday low prices and free delivery on eligible orders.
Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction ~ First edition. Author: Philip E. Tetlock: Published: 2015 (Crown Publishers) Pages: 340: ISBN: 9780804136693: LC Class: HB3730 .T47X 2015: Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction is a book by Philip E. Tetlock and Dan Gardner released in 2015. It details findings from The Good Judgment Project. Reviews. The Economist reports that superforecasters are clever (with a good mental .
Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction by ~ Superforcasting: The Art of Science and Prediction, by Philip E. Tetlock, is a book about the art and science of statistical prediction, and its everyday uses. Except it isn't really, that is just what they are selling it as. The book starts off really strong, analyzing skepticism, illusions of statistical knowledge, and various types of bias. However, the majority of the book focuses on a US .
Superforecasting Prediction Philip E Tetlock Ebook ~ former ballroom dancer who set out to forecast global events superforecasting the art and science of prediction kindle edition by tetlock philip e gardner dan download it once and read it on your kindle device pc phones or tablets use features like bookmarks note taking and highlighting while reading superforecasting the art and science of prediction in superforecasting tetlock and coauthor .
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The Signal and the Noise: The Art and Science of ~ The Signal and the Noise: The Art and Science of Prediction / Silver, Nate / ISBN: 9780141975658 / Kostenloser Versand fĂŒr alle BĂŒcher mit Versand und Verkauf duch .
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